Why you should still wait to buy

00:00 Speaker A

So there’s some patterns that most of us don’t pay attention to. When it comes to real estate, the pattern has been, uh Boomers bought their first house at 31. Millennials are at 38 or so right now. And then they bought their biggest house at 41. We’ll talk about what comes next. It’s not shortages, by the way. But let’s just look at when boomers were standing in line, I was one of them, the rates were 16% for 30 years. Are you kidding me?

00:32 Speaker B

1980s?

00:32 Speaker A

That’s right. And when we got together for the holidays, Halloween, Christmas, right, whatever, Thanksgiving.

00:38 Speaker B

Oh, I got a 15%.

00:39 Speaker A

Everybody would Oh, you got oh, how did you get that?

00:41 Speaker C

That must have been so crazy because now with the six or 7%, can you believe it?

00:44 Speaker A

Right. Well, who told boomers there would be 3% money? They would have kicked your face, right? There’s no way that’s going to happen. So let’s just see, we look at the what what we’re missing is in AR has says you got to look at interest rates, location and inventory. I’m sorry. Those are three different balls that you’re trying to keep in the air and then synthesize what all this data means. No, just look at the buying and selling behavior of consumers based on age. That’s what’s so different. So 31 first house, 41 biggest house. That’s when boomers had to have the McMansion, couldn’t live without it. And what’s next? What are we hearing now? Oh, it’s all about shortages, shortages, shortages. Well though, no, no, it’s not. From the same source, we can see, wait for it, there are 16 million bacon homes in America. Are you kidding me? And guess what? The first two cup cup states that are lead the list happen to be Florida at 1.7 million and California at 1.2 million vacant homes. Really? So 78 and 79 are a terrific one-two punch that we have never seen before. So that’s why we have to be cautious about looking backwards as history as though that’s going to pretend the future, okay? 78, 79 happened to it’s a it’s a twilight zone. It 78 happens to be the age that most people sell their homes and 78-79 is the age that the average age of people going to heaven. So now you tell me, would you rather buy now and wake up and find that prices revert back to where the bubble in real estate might have started? That would be 2012. So look at any address you are looking at and go back, you can only go for Zillow 10 years, but get close there. And you may find on the coast, right, the decline could be 60%. So if that doesn’t bother you, go with God. If that bothers you, I would say keep your powder dry and wait for this elephant to kneel cuz in the Midwest, we see prices becoming maybe 50% on the coast 60%. So this would be a time I would say to the to the folks who want to really play the game, be patient, keep your powder dry, see what happens to these prices. Don’t do the fear of losing out. You don’t want to do that when just wait for prices to come down and then and then get on the elephant at that point in time.